Who wins the stablecoin race - Issuers? Fintechs? Protocols? Since GENIUS, barriers to issuance have never been lower. Lately, I've been thinking a lot about who captures that dollar - who dictates which onchain dollars users hold?

My thesis is that there are three main camps fighting to capture the dollar: Issuers: capture reserve yield and building out institutional-grade rails @circle @Paxos @Tether_to Fintechs: route balances and keep a share of float @PayPal @Stablecoin @RevolutApp Protocols: package on-chain yield and liquidity @ethena_labs @Hyperliquid @MakerDAO @Mantle_Official

A lot of this hinges on yield, distribution, and compliance. Examples: Issuers formalizing partner rewards and bank-grade rails. Fintechs showing “USD” while routing tokens behind the scenes Protocols turning basis and RWA income into native savings

What to expect over the next 12 months: • A long tail of regional and purpose-built dollars (regional stablecoins, payroll, B2B settlement). • Fintech-issued or white-label dollars inside wallets and neobanks. • Protocol stables competing on pass-through yield and integrations. The duopoly era fades as specialization grows @nic__carter wrote about this in 'The stablecoin duopoly is ending'