Markets evolve rapidly, and so do the signals indicating our position in the cycle. Last month, the data clearly placed us in Stage 2 (Mid Bull) with early signs of acceleration. Today, we remain in Mid Bull but are edging closer to the transition from Stage 2 to Stage 3. We didn't accelerate directly into Late Bull; instead, we experienced a healthy reset, particularly evident in RSI and CBBI. This reset allows the uptrend to continue without overheating, keeping the market extendable rather than exhausted. (See the infographic attached for a summary of Progression: Last Month vs Now.) Currently, these key indicators are on our watchlist, hovering just below late-stage thresholds: • Bitcoin MVRV Ratio (72% to 80%+): nearing overvaluation territory. • Bitcoin Reserve Risk (48% to 55%): indicating a slight weakening in long-term conviction. • Short-Term Holder Supply (74% to 78%): speculative capital continues to flow in. • Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (51% to 67%): gradually approaching historical peak zones. If these indicators exceed 80–85%, Stage 3 will be officially confirmed. Even with the progression, several macro indicators remain well below danger zones: - Ahr999 Index (26% to 24%): Miners are still comfortable. - ETF Outflows (0 days to still low): Institutions remain net buyers. - Bitcoin Bubble Index (<20%): Nowhere near mania. - RHODL Ratio (~25%): Still deep in the “safe zone.” Strategy From Here: - Ride the trend, as the uptrend remains intact. - Buy dips with precision; the RSI reset provides entry windows. - Gradually rotate into BTC/ETH as metrics cross above 80%. - Trim overextended alts, especially in high-MVRV sectors like memes. Bottom Line: We’re still in Stage 2 (Mid Bull), but we are edging closer to the ignition point. Instead of overheating, the market has taken a breather, which extends the cycle rather than concluding it. If the current momentum persists, Stage 3 (Late Bull) is likely to activate within 1–2 months. This is the prime time to compound aggressively, but it's also the moment when exit plans should start becoming intentional, not emotional.
Markets move fast, and so do the signals that tell us when things are heating up. Last month, we were sitting comfortably in Stage 2 (Mid Bull). Now, some key indicators have shifted but the big picture is that we are still mid-bull but closer to late-bull. • Out of 30 peak indicators, only 3% have flashed a top signal (same as last month). But progress toward late-bull levels is creeping higher with several metrics now sitting just below their overheating thresholds. • We are still in the “momentum is strong, dips are for buying” phase but this is also where smart traders start preparing exit plans. Compared to last month, several key metrics have moved further toward cycle-top territory: • Altcoin Season Index: Now above 75 (100% progress) which is new. The first real sign that altcoin rotation has begun. • Long-Term Holder Supply (87.3% - up from 86.4%): showing that long-term holders are slowly distributing. • Golden Ratio Multiplier (85.2% ): which is creeping even closer to the overheated zone. • Trend Indicator (87.7%): showing a strong and sustained uptrend. • CBBI (83.3% ): nudging further into late-bull territory. _____________ These metrics are building momentum so watch them closely as they are the signal showing we are 1 to 2 months away from the late bull stage : • NUPL (78.4% ): nearing the "belief/euphoria" threshold. • MVRV Ratio (72.6%): market cap continues stretching above realised cap. • RSI-22 Day (67.4%): still room to run before overbought. • Short-Term Holder Supply (74.4%): Risk capital is flowing in faster. _______________ No real danger signals yet from these indicators: • Ahr999 Index (26.7% ): miners not stressed. • Bitcoin Bubble Index (16.8% ): nowhere near mania levels. • ETF Outflows ( 0 days ) : institutional flows remain net positive. • RHODL Ratio (25.5% ): still far from generational top levels. ________________ ●Here’s where we sit now in the cycle framework: • Stage 1 (Early Bull): Done. • Stage 2 (Mid Bull): Here. But closer to the transition to Stage 3. • Stage 3 (Late Bull): Approaching ( alt season indicator and CBBI suggest we’re 2–4 months away ) • Stage 4 (Blow-off Top): Not yet. Too many metrics remain below danger zones. ●What to Watch in the Coming Weeks : • BTC Dominance: Still below the “rollover” level but watch for a breakdown. That’s usually the alt season green light. • ETF Flows: 10+ consecutive outflow days is a cause for worry. • Holder Supply: If long-term holder distribution accelerates, expect stronger volatility. ●Positioning Smartly from Here • Ride the trend: The uptrend is still intact so stay positioned for upside. • Trim risk on frothy alts: Some alts are already overheated (check your bags!). • Rotate gradually: As more metrics cross 80–85%, scale into BTC, ETH, and stables. • Stay nimble: This is where narratives drive price faster than fundamentals so don’t get trapped chasing blow-off tops. _______________ Bottom Line : We’re still in Stage 2 (Mid Bull), but the dashboard is lighting up faster now. Altcoin season has technically started. Stage 3 (Late Bull) likely kicks in within 2–4 months if this pace holds. This is the window to make gains but also to start planning exits before everyone else does!
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