[Allora(@AlloraNetwork) x Prediction Market] Did you know? Allora could be the beta of Prediction Market. Please read to the end since I wrote it seriously 🫡 (Attempting to mention via Yapping) Recent articles show that Polymarket has raised $8b and Kalshi has raised $5b in valuation. This indicates that VCs view the future of Prediction Markets very positively. In fact, Allora is very closely related to Prediction Markets. Looking at the initial topics of Allora Forge (a concept similar to a hackathon), they focus on financial prediction problems such as ETH price prediction, ETH volatility prediction, and USDC/ETH trading volume prediction. Prediction Markets calculate (or sense) probabilities by humans, but in Allora, AI models (Workers) submit the predicted values. 1) AI Models (Workers): Submit predicted values for specific topics (e.g., ETH price fluctuations, BTC Funding Rate, etc.) and bet through staking. 2) Reputers: Evaluate the reliability and accuracy of each model based on data feeds (actual results). 3) Validators: Verify whether the Reputers' evaluations are correct and record the results on the blockchain. 4) Based on the accuracy (error range) of the predicted versus actual results, AI models receive rewards. Prediction Markets are markets where people predict and receive rewards based on results. Allora is a network where AI predicts, gets evaluated, and receives rewards. In other words, the "betting" in Prediction Markets is transformed into "submitting probabilistic predictions by AI models" in Allora, and the mechanisms of the two structures are fundamentally the same. Allora = "AI Agent Prediction Market Layer" Allora can be integrated into Prediction Markets and operate like an oracle as follows: - Event (Prediction Market): "What is the probability that the ETH price will be above $2,500 within 24 hours?" - 50 Worker models from Allora submit probability predictions (e.g., 0.65, 0.72, 0.48, etc.) - Reputer calculates a weighted average based on the reliability of each model. - Result: Publicly released as "collective probability 0.68" in the market → fed to Polymarket as data for reference in betting. - When the actual result comes out, models with high accuracy receive rewards and reputation scores increase, improving probabilities. Moreover, the collective intelligence loop can lead to Prediction Market results → reinvested into Allora's training data → enhancing model performance, and the Reputer system of Allora could also be applied to evaluate the reliability of Prediction Markets (e.g., manipulation detection, betting bias correction). If the form I envision becomes a reality, users of Prediction Markets may be able to purchase predictive information for money or subscribe in the form of NFT licenses. @nick_emmons I believe Allora can be integrated into the Prediction Market and operate within it. I’m rooting for Allora!