The bull market has not yet ended, but the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin may have already concluded.
While the entire market is still indulging in the comfort zone of the market and the madness of memes, we have already prepared our trading plan for this downturn in advance.
When prices rise, everyone on the internet shouts that the bull market is still on, but as soon as there’s a pullback, they immediately cry that the bear market has arrived.
The core reason is simple — this round of market activity has not seen the kind of "mass hysteria" that previous cycles experienced, nor has there been a significant "super wealth effect"; it hasn't reached the heat of past cycle peaks.
Another key variable is liquidity. From the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, liquidity will be significantly loosened.
Therefore, I personally believe that Bitcoin is likely to continue its upward trend in 2026, especially with global listed companies/celebrities/institutions/countries involved, and it may even truly establish itself as a "macro asset" in this process.
Not to play the role of an after-the-fact commentator, so we have discussed macro information in advance during our dollar-cost averaging and with my brothers. My personal prediction, based on the analysis of the operators' strategies, is that there will likely be a pullback before a significant rise, which could be the last opportunity to get in this round, but this time window will be quite frustrating.
There’s no need to make detailed judgments about when to rise or fall; for dollar-cost averaging, what everyone needs to do is plan their funds/judge whether the bull market has ended.
1. If it hasn't ended, then short to medium-term arbitrage can still be done to maximize profits.
2. If it has ended, then allocate funds properly and prepare to hold low-cost positions.
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